Food waste prevention is increasingly framed as a sustainability solution, yet most life cycle assessments (LCAs) fail to account for rebound effects, i.e. systemic responses that offset intended environmental gains. While well-documented in energy field, rebound effects remain underexplored in food waste studies, despite their potential to substantially offset the climate benefits of interventions. This is especially relevant for interventions involving end-consumers, where monetary savings can be substantial. Previous studies show considerable rebound magnitudes. Salemdeeb et al. (2017) estimated that household re-spending could offset 60% of greenhouse gas savings. Meshulam et al. (2021) found that peer-to-peer food sharing triggered a 94% rebound, nearly cancelling the intended emission benefits. Sundin et al. (2023) found income-driven rebound offset 31–64% of climate benefits from surplus food redistribution. Hegwood et al. (2023) reported price-driven rebounds offsetting 53–71% of expected savings globally. Albizzati et al. (2022) showed that economy-wide feedbacks reduced climate savings by 38% through land use and trade shifts. These findings underline the risk of overstating environmental mitigation in policy evaluations.
This study synthesizes findings from a semi-systematic review, identifying five rebound types relevant to food waste prevention:
1. Income-driven rebound: Savings from waste prevention are re-spent on other goods/services.
2. Income-dependent rebound: Rebound effects vary across income groups.
3. Technological rebound: Waste reduction technologies increase energy/material use.
4. Price-driven rebound: Efficiency leads to lower food prices, increasing demand.
5. Economy-wide rebound: Systemic shifts in supply, demand, trade, or land use trigger additional impacts.
The absence of rebound accounting in food waste LCAs risks overstating the benefits of such measures and overlooking trade-offs between climate mitigation and social outcomes. We illustrate this with empirical examples and present preliminary insights from an ongoing survey among food system and food waste LCA practitioners. Initial responses show limited incorporation of rebound effects in practice, despite a general recognition of their
relevance. To address this gap, we propose a framework applying system expansion within attributional LCA to model income-driven rebound effects. By extending the system boundary to include environmental impacts from additional consumption enabled by cost savings, and using primary data (e.g. surveys), expenditure data, marginal budget shares, or scenario-based assumptions to estimate these effects, rebound can be modeled without relying on macroeconomic tools. Although this use of system expansion departs from its conventional purpose of resolving multi-functionality, it provides a practical and transparent means to capture behavioral consequences in attributional LCAs. This deviation is justified by the need to reflect real-world consumer responses to cost savings, which are otherwise excluded in standard attributional modelling but can substantially offset intended climate benefits. By integrating rebound effects into attributional LCA, our approach improves the credibility of ffood waste prevention assessments and supports more realistic climate policy design.